Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”, Longnow Foundation, 2008/01/14

Is it human nature to want to avoid uncertainty?

Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)

The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecasting”

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David Ing blogs at coevolving.com , photoblogs at daviding.com , and microblogs at http://ingbrief.wordpress.com . See .

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