Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought”, Longnow Foundation, 2008/02/04

I had recently heard another talk by Taleb on Econtalk, which had more of an economic spin. This talk was equally entertaining, with a slightly different orientation.

Dispatches from Extremistan

A “black swan,” Taleb explained, is an event which is 1) Hard to predict; 2) Highly consequential; 3) Wrongly retro-predicted. We pretend we know why the big event happened, and so entrench our inability to deal with the next world-changing improbable event.

Examples: Viagra, 9/11, Harry Potter, First World War, Beatles, the PC, Google, and the rise of any successful religion. History is dominated by sudden, lasting changes wrought by deeply unexpected events.

Part of the problem is that we ignore the “silent evidence” of the nonobserved and nonobservable. We compute probability from the success of survivors. No one writes or reads a book titled “How I Lost a Million Dollars.” Another problem is that we revise our own predictions and intentions unconsciously to match what actually happens. We disguise having been wrong by pretending we were right. This is “confirmation bias.”There are TWO kinds of randomness, two realms in which events happen…

Mediocristan is dominated by the average [….]

Extremistan is dominated by extremes. [….]

The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought”

MP3 audio

Advertisements
About

David Ing blogs at coevolving.com , photoblogs at daviding.com , and microblogs at http://ingbrief.wordpress.com . See .

Tagged with: ,
Posted in Talk Audio Download

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Beyond this media queue
This content is syndicated to Twitter. For professional perspectives, look to Coevolving Innovations; for a photoblog, look to Reflections, Distractions.
  • Ubuntu L2TP VPN
    Now with Ubuntu 17.04, since Ubuntu 16.04, I’ve had problems with connecting to a VPN that uses L2TP.  I found a fix through a series of steps, beginning with “Enabling L2TP over IPSec on Ubuntu 16.04” | Zaid Daba’een | Aug. 22, 2016, updated Mar. 29, 2017 at http://blog.z-proj.com/enabling-l2tp-over-ipsec-on-ubuntu-16-04/ . sudo add-apt-repository ppa:nm-l2 […]
  • 2017/10/08 13:10 Alice Rawsthorn, “Good or Bad Design”, EditDX
    Keynote @alicerawsthorn @EditDX Introduction by Nina Boccia @nboccia Director of Programs, Design Exchange Alice Rawsthorn is authoritative voice on design Last book was Hello World: Where Design Meets Life (2013) Next book, Design as an Attitude, to be published in spring 2018 Based in London OBE (Order of the British Empire) for service to design and […] […]
  • 2017/10/02 13:05 Richard Florida, “Urban Futures Keynote”, EditDX
    Plenary @richard_florida @EditDX intro by @alexbozikovic This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker’s presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistake […]
  • 2017/09/29 16:35 “Future of Design Thinking”, EditDX
    Panel @EditDX @rsomerson  @CodeZebra  Luigi Ferrara, @jamescowan as moderator This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker’s presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical error […]
  • Dissertation committees and privilege
    Is a dissertation about the content, the student, or power dynamics? Dissertation writing is very stressful, what with the looming job market, the high cost of living in many cities, the balancing act of life and health — all while being expected to produce intellectual gold. To that, add the anxiety caused by those committee […]
  • 2017/09/10 13:55 Paul Cabaj, “Financing a Coop”, Disrupting the Disruptors
    Workshop @chickweedpatch @CoopsCanada #platformcoop, platformcoop.ca/, Beeton Room, Toronto Public Library This digest was created in real-time during the meeting,based on the speaker’s presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individua […]
Contact
I welcome your e-mail. If you don't have my address, here's a contact page.
%d bloggers like this: