Nassim Taleb, Black Swans, Econtalk, 2007/04/30

People think that phenomena happen with frequencies in normal distributions too often.

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. In Mediocristan, events are generated by a underlying random process that is normally distributed. These events are often physical and observable and they tend to cluster around the middle. Most people are near the average height and no adult is more than nine feet tall. But in Extremistan, the right-hand tail of events is thick and long and the outlier, the seemingly wildly unlikely event is more common than our experience with Mediocristan would indicate. Bill Gates is more than a little wealthier than the average. The civil war in Lebabon or the events of 9/11 were more worse than just a typical bad day in the Beirut or New York City. Taleb’s contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.

Taleb on Black Swans, EconTalk Permanent Podcast Link: Library of Economics and Liberty

MP3 audio

Advertisements
About

David Ing blogs at coevolving.com , photoblogs at daviding.com , and microblogs at http://ingbrief.wordpress.com . See .

Tagged with: ,
Posted in Talk Audio Download
2 comments on “Nassim Taleb, Black Swans, Econtalk, 2007/04/30
  1. […] Posted by daviding in Uncategorized. Tags: black swans, nassim taleb trackback I had recently heard another talk by Taleb on Econtalk, which had more of an economic spin. This talk was equally entertaining, with a slightly different […]

  2. […] by daviding in Talk Audio Download. Tags: black swans, nassim taleb trackback I had recently heard another talk by Taleb on Econtalk, which had more of an economic spin. This talk was equally entertaining, with a slightly different […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Beyond this media queue
This content is syndicated to Twitter. For professional perspectives, look to Coevolving Innovations; for a photoblog, look to Reflections, Distractions.
  • 2017/06 Moments June 2017
    Quiet month at my computer in Toronto, punctuated by afternoon bicycling, a son's university convocation and Toronto Jazz Festival concerts.
  • 2017/05 Moments May 2017
    Fairfield, Iowa; Iowa City; Iowa; Coralville, Iowa; East Moline, Illinois; Chicago, Illinois; Evanston, Illinois; Kerwood, Ontario; Toronto, Ontario
  • 2017/04 Moments April 2017
    Toronto, Ontario; Shanghai, PR China; Kalamazoo, Michigan
  • 2017/03 Moments March 2017
    Toronto, Ontario; Santa Clara, California; Milpitas, California; San Jose, California; Oakland, California; Hayward, California; Mountain View, California; Palo Alto, California; San Francisco, California; Mountain View, California; Half Moon Bay, California, Pescadero, California; Santa Cruz, California; Tokyo, Japan
  • 2017/02 Moments February 2017
    Toronto, Ontario; Mississauga, Ontario; London, Ontario
  • 2017/01 Moments January 2017
    Toronto, Ontario. (A whole month without leaving town, since Don Mills and Scarborough are Metropolitan Toronto)
  • mastodon.cloud/@daviding
    Experimenting as https://mastodon.cloud/@daviding with federated social network microblog.  Hunting for other leading-edge people interested in communicating on an open platform, as an alternative to the walled gardens. Haven’t heard of Mastodon?  See: “A beginner’s guide to Mastodon, the hot new open-source Twitter clone” | Megan Farokhmanesh | Apr 7, 2017 […]
  • GParted fails; KDE Partition Manager succeeds
    Repartitioning disk with Ubuntu 16.04 GParted fails; Kubuntu 17.04 KDE Partition Manager works. Booting my Thinkpad X200 from an Ubuntu 16.04 live USB key, GParted was able to successfully shrink a NTFS partition and leave unallocated space.  Then, a request to either (i) shrink the existing \ EXT4 partition, or (ii) create a new empty […]
  • Freedom Mobile call forwarding
    MMI codes from @FreedomMobile 611 support: Conditional forwarding (when busy + when unanswered + when unreachable) to a Canadian phone number … To activate:  *004*1nnnnnnnnnn# To deactivate:  ##004# Unconditional forwarding (phone won’t ring, with $0.75 charge per call) … To activate *21*1nnnnnnnnnn# To deactivate  ##21# Last year, conditional forwarding res […]
  • Accuweather minutecast
    Discovered @Accuweather MinuteCast will forecast rain in neighbourhood down to a 3-place postal code, and show radar weather map.   Good for planning short shopping trips on the bike. #forecast, #radar, #rain, #weather
  • Wrap-up smear
    “Wrap-up smear” as deflection. @NancyPelosi said “You make up something. Then you have the press write about it. And then you say, everybody is writing about this charge”.  Added to lexicon on smear campaign on Wikipedia , based on interview at transcript of CNN’s State of the Union with Jake Tapper Nancy Pelosi |”State of the Union with Jake […] […]
  • Galaxy S2 to Nougat
    Updated Samsung Galaxy S2 i9100M smartphone to Android 7 Nougat with ResurrectionRemix OS and GApps Micro.  Followed guide/tutorial started in January 2017 for CM14, but then altered for the more active RR community. #i9100, #nougat
Contact
I welcome your e-mail. If you don't have my address, here's a contact page.
%d bloggers like this: